AGP Executive Report

Tanzania Budget Push: Tanzania tabled a Sh62.3trn/2026/27 budget and a Vision 2050 implementation roadmap, banking on tighter fiscal discipline and reforms as GDP growth is reported at 5.9% in 2025 and investment hits record highs. Tax Relief for Growth: New businesses get a one-year income tax exemption from TIN issuance, while firms benefit from VAT exemptions on key investment inputs and a permanent move on VAT deferment for imported capital goods. Digital Economy Rules: From July 2026, digital payments become mandatory in public transport and other key sectors, as the government targets a cash-lite economy and wider oversight. Industrial & Transport Drive: The budget prioritises industrialisation, rare minerals and rail expansion, including TAZARA revitalisation and Standard Gauge Railway works to cut transport costs and boost trade. Clean Energy & Mobility: Incentives expand for CNG and electric vehicles, and public institutions are directed to prioritise electric and gas-powered vehicles. Cost Shock Warning: Officials warn Middle East conflict could lift fuel and fertiliser costs, squeezing households and food prices. Health Funding Moves: New levies on sugar and cigarettes are proposed to raise about Sh7.5bn for Universal Health Coverage. Regional Trade Fix: The East African Business Council launched a digital tracker to monitor and resolve non-tariff barriers, aiming to lift intra-regional trade. Finance & Climate: KCB Group says it disbursed Sh48.8bn in green loans and screened Sh587.9bn for environmental and social due diligence across East Africa. Transport Legacy: TAZARA marks its 50th anniversary with a month-long programme framing the railway as a corridor for future economic transformation.

Budget Watch: Tanzania’s 2026/27 Budget is set to be tabled today with Finance Minister Khamis Mussa Omar flagging targeted tax relief in a Sh62.3trn plan, alongside reforms to widen the tax base and improve revenue collection efficiency. Macroeconomic Update: Tanzania’s economy grew 5.9% in 2025, with GDP rebasing lifting the 2025 GDP to Sh234.1trn and agriculture still the biggest contributor. Public Finance: Government debt climbed 8.97% to Sh114.34trn by March 2026 as borrowing continues for development projects, though authorities say debt remains sustainable. Cost of Living & Fuel: With inflationary pressure linked to global oil shocks, fuel prices have jumped sharply since March, raising expectations that the Budget will tackle household affordability. Banking & Investment: NMB Bank approved share subdivision and resolutions that could enable cautious regional expansion into markets like Uganda, Zambia and DR Congo. Trade Facilitation: East African business groups want Tanzania and Burundi to publish a clear list of commonly traded goods under the EAC Simplified Trade Regime to reduce delays—especially for women and youth traders. Agribusiness Opportunity: A coffee price rally is boosting Tanzania’s export prospects as production rises and more output is sold through direct export channels. Regional Diplomacy: Zanzibar invited Singapore investors to explore the blue economy, energy and tourism as Tanzania deepens ties with Singapore. Governance & External Financing: Analysts note Tanzania’s external funding environment is shifting as EU and US policy signals tighten around democratic reforms, even as Tanzania seeks new investment partners.

Tanzania Budget 2026/27: Tanzania has unveiled a 62.3tn/- shilling (about $24bn) budget framework for 2026/2027, the first year under Development Vision 2050, with priorities including the standard gauge railway, roads, water services, energy and human capital, alongside a target of 46.8tn/- in domestic revenue. Constitution Funding Push: In Dodoma, MP Ado Shaibu urged lawmakers to start funding the new Constitution writing process in the 2026/27 budget, alongside tax relief for low-income households and tougher checks on contractors delivering substandard projects. EAC Trade Cooperation: The East African Business Council and Kenya’s Consulate in Arusha pledged closer cooperation to cut barriers to intra-EAC trade, with a focus on easing cross-border commerce challenges at the Namanga border. Aviation Connectivity: Air Tanzania has launched scheduled flights to Sumbawanga, linking the town with Tabora and Dar es Salaam, aiming to cut travel time for traders, investors and tourists. Ports and Logistics: Tanzania’s port system is seeing strong growth, led by RoRo, DP World container volumes and dry bulk cargo, reinforcing Dar es Salaam’s role as a regional trade gateway. Energy and Investment: Tanzania showcased geothermal and other energy investment opportunities at WGC 2026, positioning itself as an energy hub for regional electricity trade. Mining Momentum: Kabanga Nickel project cleared a key regulatory milestone after high-level talks with President Samia, moving the project closer to implementation. Ebola Preparedness: Tanzania reaffirmed its child labour and health commitments at UN forums, while regional Ebola preparedness remains a focus as risk classifications include Tanzania. Digital and Telecom: 5G coverage rose to 32.83% of the population, though land coverage remains limited, highlighting the gap between network rollout and smartphone uptake. Regional Diplomacy: Tanzania and Egypt discussed expanding trade, updating HS codes and improving market access, including livestock and halal-related cooperation.

Port & Logistics: Tanzania’s port system posted strong cargo growth, led by RoRo traffic and DP World container volumes, with RoRo units up 88% year-on-year (to 30,442 in May 2026) and DP World TEUs rising 57% (to 44,001), reinforcing Dar es Salaam’s push as a regional trade gateway. Trade & Finance: ITC and Equity Group signed an MoU to expand East Africa value chains, starting with Kenya, targeting coffee, leather and the creative economy—pairing trade development with access to finance for small businesses. Energy & Industry: Nuberg EPC won a contract for a 45 TPD chlor-alkali plant in Tanzania’s Coast Region, targeting commissioning by January 2027. Digital Connectivity: The EU committed €37m to extend the Blue-Raman subsea cable into East Africa, linking Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and Djibouti to a Europe–India digital corridor. Carbon Markets: Singapore and Tanzania signed an Article 6 carbon credits MoU to build a framework for high-integrity carbon trading and climate project financing. Health & Research: Tanzania urged researchers to intensify work to eliminate malaria, while a new study shows rural bed net ownership and use still fall short of the 80% target. SME & Markets: Local firms say trade fair deals matter—small businesses used Malawi’s International Trade Fair to network, secure contacts and line up new market orders. Clean Cooking: Shinyanga’s charcoal sector is shifting from pure enforcement talk toward formal, sustainable governance as Tanzania targets 80% clean cooking adoption by 2034. Diplomacy & Investment: Singapore’s state visit is driving a push for deeper Tanzania ties, with business delegations focused on trade, logistics, tourism and digital economy cooperation. Aviation Safety: The EU updated its Air Safety List—Kyrgyz airlines were removed after safety improvements, while Air Express Algeria was added due to serious compliance concerns.

Tanzania–Singapore Diplomacy & Trade: President Samia hosted Singapore’s Tharman Shanmugaratnam on a historic state visit, with both sides signing agreements to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, digital transformation, agriculture, health and skills development, while also pushing logistics and wider Africa trade links. FX Market Modernisation: The Bank of Tanzania launched an Electronic Matching System for the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market to make wholesale forex trading more transparent and rules-based, replacing slower manual matching. Zanzibar Capital Markets Push: Zanzibar plans a stock exchange and an investment bank, aiming to unlock long-term capital for tourism, infrastructure, fisheries, the blue economy and manufacturing. Uranium Project Momentum: Tanzania’s Mkuju River uranium project gained fresh momentum after Samia’s Russia visit, with officials saying infrastructure tenders are underway and major developments are expected soon. Malaria Research Call: Tanzania urged research institutions to intensify work to find lasting solutions to eliminate malaria, as NIMR opened its annual scientific conference in Arusha. Shipping Costs Hit Trade: Maersk raised China–East Africa peak surcharges, with Tanzania-linked charges increasing—raising landed costs for importers and potentially squeezing supply chains. Entrepreneurship & Green Finance: ShafDB rebranded and reported strong 2025 results, while a green SME pitch challenge invited Tanzanian entrepreneurs to compete for funding to scale climate and circular-economy solutions.

Tanzania–Singapore Trade Push: Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam begins a three-day state visit to Dar es Salaam to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, ports, infrastructure, skills and the digital economy, with Tanzania–Singapore trade rising over the past decade and talks expected to unlock new deals. Tanzania–Russia Investment Drive: President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s Russia visit is framed as a bid to attract about $2bn in investment over 3–5 years, with Russia seen as a partner for healthcare, mining, energy, agriculture and technology. Seed Sector Overhaul: Tanzania launches a Tanzania Seed Sector Development Strategy and Investment Plan to 2030, aiming to improve seed availability, quality assurance and private-sector investment, with implementation anchored by TOSCI and TARI. Cross-Border Payments Growth: Bank of Tanzania reports cross-border mobile money inflows jumped 33.45% to Sh698bn in 2025, showing faster regional remittance and trade payments. EAC Trade Facilitation: East African Business Council urges Tanzania and Burundi to publish a list of commonly traded goods under the EAC Simplified Trade Regime and set up a trade information desk at Kobero–Kabanga OSBP to help women and youth traders. Governance & Business Risks: PCCB arraigns Tanzania Teachers’ Union leaders on corruption, criminal conspiracy and economic sabotage charges, while Tanzania also faces scrutiny over ivory trafficking follow-up investigations after a North Korean suspect was arrested with 500 elephant tusks. Human Capital Focus: Tanzania rolls out the 3Rs foundational learning push under Vision 2050, directing ministries and local government to ensure early education implementation. Energy Access Story: d.light highlights its solar expansion model, citing jobs and clean energy impact for over 1.5m Tanzanians since 2019.

Banking & Inclusion: Mkombozi Bank opened a new branch in Bagamoyo, with the Catholic Bishop urging transparency and expanded financial literacy so residents can access savings, loans and other products closer to home. Anti-Corruption & Labour Governance: In Dodoma, Tanzania Teachers’ Union president Suleiman Ikomba was arraigned on 14 charges including corruption, forming a criminal gang and economic sabotage linked to alleged tender influence for union clothing. Agribusiness & Women’s Education: Improved sesame seeds are reviving yields for over 9,000 farmers in Lindi, Mtwara and Ruvuma, with one beneficiary saying the bumper harvest will help her daughter pursue accounting studies. Digital Finance: Bank of Tanzania data shows cross-border mobile money inflows rose 33.45% to Sh698bn in 2025, reflecting faster regional trade and remittance payments. Trade, Logistics & Costs: CMA CGM introduced inland emergency fuel surcharges on India–Africa cargo, hitting Tanzania-linked routes as fuel volatility raises transport costs. Wildlife Enforcement: A North Korean man arrested in Dar es Salaam with 500 elephant tusks is set for trial, while observers warn Tanzania must strengthen follow-up investigations and prosecution. Climate & Risk: Experts urge farmers and livestock keepers to prepare for a developing El Niño, which could bring higher rainfall but also flood and disease risks. Regional Policy & Foreign Relations: Analysts say President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s Russia engagement fits Tanzania’s non-alignment stance, but note the need to navigate intensifying global competition.

Zanzibar Tourism & Insurance: Zanzibar used Karibu-KiliFair 2026 to defend its mandatory travel insurance, saying it fully covered the repatriation of US influencer Ashley Robinson’s remains after her death in Zanzibar, rejecting claims that relatives had to fund the process. Regional Trade Costs: Maersk raised East Africa-bound China/Hong Kong container Peak Season Surcharges from June 15, with 20ft to Kenya/Tanzania up to $1,000 and 40ft to $2,000—expected to pressure importers and push up retail prices. Tanzania-Russia Investment Push: Tanzania says it expects over $2bn in Russian investment and business within 3–5 years after President Samia’s Russia visit, with health and pharma manufacturing among top interests. Fuel Integrity & Standards: SICPA Tanzania showcased its fuel integrity solution at TBS’ 50th anniversary forum, aimed at detecting adulteration and illicit trade in the petroleum supply chain. Banking Inclusion: NBC launched “Tunakuona Mbali” to expand financial inclusion, including diaspora-focused products and financial education. Tourism Infrastructure (Southern Circuit): Tanzania is investing Sh146.6bn in southern safari circuit upgrades under a World Bank-backed project to boost access, visitor experience, and private investment. Health Security: Kenya and Uganda launched a joint Ebola preparedness assessment at Busia border with ECSA-HC to tighten screening and procedures. Youth & Drugs: Tanzania’s drug control authority urged East African youth to lead anti-drug efforts as partners in prevention and community education.

Health Innovation: Africa CDC says the first malaria treatment made specifically for newborns and infants, Coartem Baby, is approved and will roll out in weeks across eight countries including Tanzania—aiming to cut overdose and toxicity risks from older-child dosing. Regional Health Security: Kenya and Uganda, with ECSA-HC, are assessing Ebola preparedness at Busia border to tighten screening and standard procedures along a key trade corridor. Tourism & Finance: Zanzibar defended its mandatory travel insurance after repatriation costs for a US influencer were covered, while Access Bank Tanzania and IFC backed tourism-linked financing to support SMEs. Infrastructure & Trade: Tanzania is pushing big trade gateway ambitions around Bagamoyo and is also betting on southern safari upgrades funded with the World Bank to pull more visitors. Governance & Tax: Dodoma is reviewing a property tax system that currently shifts the burden to tenants via LUKU tokens, and MPs say SGR-related levies are being settled by contractors. Diplomacy & Investment: Tanzania’s government insists ties with Russia won’t harm relations with other partners, projecting over $2bn in Russian business in 3–5 years after Samia’s SPIEF visit.

Ebola Watch: WHO says the Central Africa outbreak may be broader and more entrenched than first thought, with transmission accelerating in eastern DRC and spillover risks rising for neighbours. EAC Trade Policy: A new Kenya Finance Bill clause could remove long-standing excise exemptions for EAC-origin goods, threatening about Sh350b in regional trade. Tanzania–Russia Aviation & Tourism: Samia Suluhu announced direct Air Tanzania flights linking Dar es Salaam, Moscow and Zanzibar from July 2, aiming to boost trade and tourism ties. Tanzania–Nigeria Trade Push: Tanzania’s High Commission in Abuja plans to deepen business links with Nigeria via FAB West Africa 2026, spotlighting tea, coffee, cashew, wines and value-added foods. Port & Logistics Demand: Cargo growth at Dar es Salaam port is driving a surge in demand for heavy-duty trucks, with local assemblers scaling up production. Finance & Inclusion: Equity Bank opened a Zanzibar Supreme Banking Center to serve investors and high-net-worth clients, expanding access to tailored banking solutions. Coffee Sector Protection: Tanzania will bar buyers with unpaid debts to coffee farmers from purchasing next season to curb disputes and protect growers. Informality & Tax Base: Moody’s warns nearly 88% of Sub-Saharan workers are informal, weakening tax collection and limiting growth.

Tanzania–Russia Deal Push: President Samia Suluhu Hassan used SPIEF to court investors and said Tanzania is “not under sanctions,” while unveiling direct Air Tanzania flights linking Dar es Salaam, Moscow and Zanzibar from July 2, aiming to boost trade and tourism. Industrial & Trade Strategy: Samia also pitched the Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone as Tanzania’s top investment project to attract manufacturing and logistics partners. Climate Finance Call: Tanzania urged stronger climate adaptation funding as the GEF assembly ended in Uzbekistan, stressing adaptation as “a matter of survival” for developing countries. Tourism Boost: Belgium Airlines’ maiden flight to Kilimanjaro International Airport signals fresh European tourism links, while UNDP is pushing Lake Victoria Basin tourism and investment to create jobs and protect ecosystems. Agribusiness Rules: Tanzania bars debt-default coffee buyers from next season, with licences withheld to protect farmers and reduce payment disputes. Zanzibar Banking Expansion: Equity Bank Tanzania opened the Zanzibar Supreme Banking Center to serve investors and high-net-worth clients, expanding access to finance. Regional Finance Watch: EAC faces a cash crunch and staffing gaps, with retirees missing gratuity and key secretariat posts still vacant. Consumer Protection: Tanzania’s standards body destroyed 300 bales of expired soya chunks and fined a wholesaler, reinforcing food safety enforcement. Digital Economy Angle: Tanzania’s diaspora homeownership push gains momentum through a TCB–CPS Africa mortgage partnership for Fumba Town.

Tanzania–Russia Business Push: President Samia Suluhu Hassan told investors at SPIEF that Tanzania is “not under sanctions” and unveiled five priority projects for partnership, including the Bagamoyo SEZ and Zanzibar’s Mangapwani transshipment port, as FDI rises. Air Connectivity for Trade & Tourism: Air Tanzania plans direct Dar es Salaam–Zanzibar–Moscow flights from July 2, while Brussels Airlines launched Belgium–Tanzania direct service, lifting Kilimanjaro airport movements and boosting the northern tourism corridor. Digital Payments Boom: Tanzania’s cash-lite shift is accelerating, with merchants accepting digital payments rising to 2.79m in 2025 and P2B transactions hitting Sh37.52tn. SME Financing: Stanbic Bank Tanzania secured a Sh70bn facility to expand SME lending, especially in sustainable agriculture value chains. Environment & Vision 2050: Dodoma launched a Sh7tn five-year environmental programme (2026–2030) linking climate action to growth, clean energy and waste management. Regional Trade & Investment: Zanzibar President Mwinyi pitched the islands’ reforms and investment appeal at a forum drawing 700+ participants.

Tanzania-Russia Business Push: At SPIEF in St Petersburg, President Samia Suluhu Hassan told investors Tanzania is positioning itself as East Africa’s trade gateway and unveiled five flagship projects, including the Bagamoyo SEZ, Zanzibar’s Mangapwani transshipment port, plus plans in ports, mining, tourism, fertiliser and nuclear energy. SME & Finance: Stanbic Bank Tanzania secured a Sh70bn facility to expand SME lending, with funding split into Sh50bn drawn in 2025 and Sh20bn in 2026, targeting agriculture and value chains. Digital Payments: Tanzania’s “cash-lite” shift is accelerating as merchants accepting digital payments more than doubled to 2.79m in 2025, with P2B transactions rising strongly in both volume and value. Environment & Climate Finance: Tanzania launched a Sh7tn, five-year environmental transformation programme (2026-2030) linking climate action to Vision 2050 goals, including clean energy, waste management and green financing. Health Quality Warning: Experts warned that poor-quality healthcare is killing more people than diseases, stressing that Universal Health Coverage must include safer, better services. Youth & Jobs: The youth development minister said reaching the $1tn economy goal depends on youth access to finance, financial literacy and cooperative models. Governance & Corruption: Africa plans new corruption centres of excellence after an AU-GFI MoU, citing losses of about $125bn annually to corruption. Air Connectivity: Air Tanzania will launch direct Dar es Salaam–Zanzibar–Moscow flights from July 2, aiming to boost tourism and trade.

Russia-Ukraine Shock to Investment: Putin said Russia will strengthen air defences after Ukrainian drones hit deep inside the country, including St. Petersburg as SPIEF opened—oil terminal damage and disrupted flights cast a shadow over the investment forum. Tanzania-Russia Trade Push: During Samia’s Moscow visit, both sides pledged deeper cooperation; but analysts note Tanzania’s wheat dependence on Russia drives most trade growth, raising food-security and pricing sensitivity. Public Service Accountability: Tanzania ordered disciplinary action against supervisors who miss mandatory performance appraisals and warned staff against misusing AI and official communication systems. Antimicrobial Resistance Gains: Tanzania cut inappropriate antibiotic use by 88% and AMR-linked deaths by 14%, citing stronger surveillance, financing and public awareness under the 2023–2028 plan. Regional Risk Insurance Boost: AfDB approved a $125m equity investment in ATIDI to expand trade, credit and political risk insurance—aimed at unlocking intra-Africa commerce. Coffee Competitiveness: Tanzania Coffee Board pledged closer industry collaboration to raise productivity, traceability and global market access. Agribusiness Insurance for Farmers: Britam reported Sh97.3m paid in climate-related claims in 2025, supporting over 400,000 farmers and livestock keepers across East Africa.

Trade & Risk Insurance: AfDB approved a US$125m equity boost to ATIDI to expand trade, credit and political risk insurance across Africa, aiming to unlock FDI and intra-African trade. Coffee Competitiveness: Tanzania Coffee Board pledged tighter collaboration with stakeholders to raise productivity, processing and export market access, with traceability a key push. Sports & Youth Finance: CRDB Bank Foundation injected Sh400m into the Imbeju Ndondo Cup 2026, with prize money and awards deposited into beneficiaries’ Imbeju accounts. Aviation & Tourism Links: Brussels Airlines launched direct flights to Tanzania, landing 248 tourists at KIA and lifting weekly movements as tourism targets continue. Climate Finance: GEF endorsed a $3.9bn replenishment and approved new environmental projects, with Tanzania set to benefit but still facing access barriers for communities. Ebola Preparedness: EAC health ministers agreed to harmonise Ebola surveillance and protective measures at airports, ports and land borders, creating a regional technical taskforce. Regional Trade Friction: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 proposes removing an excise duty exemption for EAC-origin glass bottles, reigniting a dispute with Tanzania’s Kioo Limited. Tanzania–Russia Deals: President Samia Suluhu Hassan met Putin in Moscow, with talks on trade, tourism and minerals and a focus on the long-planned uranium project. Banking Results: Swissport Tanzania reported higher 2025 net profit of Sh6.5bn and proposed a dividend of Sh3.27bn.

Russia-Tanzania Deal Push: President Samia Suluhu Hassan met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with both sides stressing faster trade growth (up about 20–25% in 2025) and new cooperation in energy, minerals, transport, healthcare and education, while a uranium mine remains the key concrete project. Geopolitics Meets Business: The St Petersburg International Economic Forum opened amid Ukrainian drone strikes that hit the oil terminal and a naval base, disrupting flights and casting a risk backdrop over deals Russia is pitching to global partners. Uranium Deadline Pressure: Tanzania’s $1bn Mkuju River uranium project is moving toward industrial production, but developers face a tight financing and licensing clock ahead of the special mining licence expiring in April 2028. Fertiliser Cost Shield: Government is assessing global fertiliser price spikes to protect farmers, checking warehouse stocks and distribution ahead of planting; urea prices reportedly jumped from $509/ton in February to $658 in May. Trade Finance Boost: IFC and Standard Chartered launched a $300m risk-sharing facility to expand supply-chain and trade finance across eight countries including Tanzania, targeting faster supplier payments and support for SMEs. Agribusiness Jobs Angle: A PPP Centre lecture in Dodoma highlighted using public-private partnerships to cut reliance on taxes and borrowing as Tanzania targets a $1tn economy by 2050. Beekeeping Opportunity: Tanzania was invited to host Africa’s premier Africa Bee Expo in 2028, with organisers also naming it guest of honour for the 2026 edition in Algeria. Energy Sector Advocacy: The African Energy Chamber urged “energy addition” via more oil and gas investment to tackle energy poverty and clean cooking gaps.